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Bitcoin Update for October 6th, 2021

Historically, September has been Bitcoin's worst month of the year with an average -7% return. Well, this year didn't disappoint as Bitcoin ended September -6% for the month. That all turned around though as soon as October started with Bitcoin up about 34% in the first 6 days of the month. It's hard to believe that the month could keep up at this pace but we shall see. Actually, it wouldn't surprise me to see Bitcoin pullback in the short term. After such a big move in a short period of time Bitcoin is now a bit overextended so a pause or pullback would be healthy.

Bitcoin Daily Chart

Looking at the daily chart above you can see just how bad September was and how the first 6 days of October have clawed back all of those losses. There is however a large volume node that peaks around $56k that will most likely prove to be strong resistance. If Bitcoin can push above that there isn't much other than the $60k level standing in the way of a new all-time high. One thing that does concern me is that over the last few months volume has been pretty low. At this point, I have no idea where Bitcoin goes from here. I was pretty much convinced that the peak for this cycle was already set back in April but now I am not so sure. We'll just have to see how this plays out. But I hope this bullish price action is real and not just whales pumping the price up so that they can dump on everyone again.

Bitcoin Daily Chart - 2017 and 2021 Price Comparison From August to November

I was interested to see what Bitcoins price action looked like in 2017 around this same time of year. What I did was plot Bitcoin's price from the beginning of August through the end of October. Then I overlayed Bitcoin's price action from this year over the same time period. What I found is that it looks pretty similar to me, not that it means anything but I just found it interesting. In 2017 from Oct. 5th to the peak in December Bitcoin increased in price by over 370%. Price-wise most of Bitcoins gains in 2017 came in those 2 months. By chance, if we happened to see a similar percentage price increase this time it would put bitcoin's price over $240k. That most likely will not happen but hey it's nice to dream!

Take care!


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