This is going to be a very short Bitcoin update. I just wanted to reiterate my view that Bitcoin still seems to be following a 4-year cycle which means that it will be a long time before we see a true recovery and the start of the next bull market.
Bitcoin 2-Day Chart
My long-term analysis shows that most likely, BTC is still following a sort of 4-year cycle. At some point, BTC could deviate from it, but for now, I believe it is still being followed. My chart shows a bear market low occurring anytime between Oct. and the end of this year. I would love for it to happen much sooner, but I am mentally preparing for a long bear market and recovery.
My best-case scenario would be for the Jan. 24th low to be the bear market low and for BTC to build a base between $40k and $50k for a few months before slowly climbing into another bull market. But, I think that is highly unlikely and would be a major deviation from historical patterns.
Another observation is that looking at the chart, it really becomes evident how the cycle volatility is dropping. When you look at price vs. the trend arc, you can see how as time has passed, the price deviation from the arc is dropping. It will be interesting to see if that continues along with a decline in overall price volatility.
I'm really hoping that this analysis proves to be incorrect and that Bitcoin does deviate from the 4-year cycle. I really don't like the thought of having to grind through another long bear market. Being that this is all out of our hands all we can do is watch and try to enjoy the ride.
Ending on a positive note. A prolonged bear market would also come with opportunities. It would give plenty of time to dollar cost average into positions for the next bear market. It most likely would also present the opportunity to buy crypto at very cheap prices.