This is a question that I was requested to answer on Quora, and below is my answer.
That is an impossible question to answer, any answer would just be a guess. However, I would not expect a short bear market to lead to a bull market anytime soon.
At the low on June 18th, the price of Bitcoin is down almost 75% from the November peak. Is it possible that will be the low for this bear market? Sure, it is possible. During the 2015 and 2018 bear markets, the weekly 200 SMA provided strong support and marked the bottom of both bear markets. Last week Bitcoin dropped below the 200 SMA and currently sits just below it. If Bitcoin can regain the 200 SMA it is possible that it could once again signal a bottom. Only time will tell if this is how it will play out or if Bitcoin has further to fall.
Bitcoin Weekly Chart
Next, we will look at the worst-case scenario.
The last two bear markets had about 85% price declines, so if Bitcoin was going to drop a similar amount in this bear market that would put the price down near $10k. That is my worst-case scenario, but I believe it is still possible. In my opinion, a price drop substantially below $10k would be very unusual. I can only envision that happening as the result of some kind of major black swan event.
Bitcoin Weekly Chart
Either way, I believe we are facing a long crypto winter and don’t expect another bull market until late 2024 at the earliest. Everybody loves bull markets and, in a way, having to go through a prolonged bear market sucks. But it also provides many opportunities as well. It gives us plenty of time to dollar-cost average into new positions. It also gives us the opportunity to buy at incredible prices.
During this long bear market, there will be many people saying that crypto is dead. We are already starting to hear it. Do your own homework, and don’t let all the negative commentaries make you afraid to invest. This happens to many people who see the steep price declines and are too afraid to invest when it is actually the best time to invest. The people who were buying in December 2018 were rewarded handsomely, but many people were too afraid to buy and missed the bottom.
Use this time during the bear market to find new projects that actually provide a valuable service or solve a real-world problem. These will be the projects most likely to survive and thrive in the future. Above all only invest an amount that you are comfortable with but be willing to invest when others are fearful.
Take Care and protect your capital,
BigskyCrypto
info@bigskycrypto.com