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The 4-Year Bitcoin Cycle

This page contains charts and explainations about the Bitcoin 4-year market cycle.

When you study the entire price history of Bitcoin, the market cycles become apparent. Other than the first cycle, which was abbreviated, the last two have been very consistent at around four years each from peak to peak and bottom to bottom.

 

There is speculation that the 4-year market cycles are due to Bitcoin’s halving, occurring approximately every four years (210,000 blocks mined). But one must wonder if Bitcoin’s 4-year cycles are just a coincidence or a real thing.

One fact that is undeniable though is how closely the last two Bitcoin market cycles match as far as the overall length (in days), and also in the time intervals between events (Bottom to Halving to Peak to Bottom). 

Bitcoin 3-Day Chart

BLX_2023-11-26_20-45-42.png

Looking at the Bitcoin chart above (3-day time frame) showing the entire price history, notice how closely the last two cycles matched as far as the elapsed time between events.

Obviously, this isn't a massive discovery, but I find the consistency very interesting. It will also be interesting to see if the elapsed times for this market cycle once again come close to the last two market cycles.

Before continuing I want to say that Bitcoin’s very first market cycle was much shorter than the last two market cycles. So, it is possible that the fact that the last two matched so closely was just a fluke. Anyway, I will be watching closely to see how this market cycle plays out.

So far, the elapsed time from the bear market bottom on November 21st, 2022, to the halving which is estimated to take place in late April 2024 (approximately 512 days) should be very close to the last two cycles.

Bitcoin Market Cycle #2 vs #3

Cycle #2 - Bear market bottom to halving = 542 days
Cycle #3 - Bear market bottom to halving = 513 days
Cycle #4 - Bear market bottom to halving = estimated = 512 days

Cycle #2 - Halving to Bull market peak = 526 days
Cycle #3 - Halving to Bull market peak = 548 days

Cycle #2 - Bull market peak to bear market bottom = 363 days
Cycle #3 - Bull market peak to bear market bottom= 376 days

Cycle #2 - Bear market bottom to a new all-time high = 723 days
Cycle #3 - Bear market bottom to a new all-time high = 717 days

Market cycle #2 total duration (bottom to bottom) = 1431 days
Market cycle #3 total duration (bottom to bottom) = 1437 days

Just for fun I want to use this data to estimate when a new all-time high might be hit for this current market cycle. What I will do is split the difference between cycle #2 (723 days) and cycle #3 (717 days) which would give me 720 days.

So, if I move forward 720 days from the bear market bottom on November 21st, 2022, I get the date November 9th, 2024. Obviously, I wouldn't expect it to hit the exact date but I would watch for a new all-time high sometime in October or November of next year.

Of course this could all be meaningless and Bitcoin could hit a new all-time high much sooner.


Like I said this is more just for fun.

If we wanted to take it a step further and try to calculate when this current market cycle might peak we cold add the elapsed times from cycle #2 (Bottom to peak = 1068 days), and Cycle #3 (Bottom to peak = 1061 days). So if we split the difference we would get 1065 days.

So, if I project out 1065 days from the bear market bottom on November 21st, 2022, I get the date October 20th, 2025 for the peak of this market cycle.

Most likely this is all meaningless but looking at the past price history of Bitcoin the bottoms and tops do tend to occur primarily in November and December. So this might not be far off unless this market cycle is much different than the last two.

As I said earlier, I will be watching to see hoe this current market cycle plays out and how it compares to the last two cycle.

Now the big question is: "Will this similarity continue?" So far this new market cycle looks like it might. Either way it should be a wild ride so buckle up because the most exciting time in crypto is fast approaching.

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