I just want to do a quick bitcoin update as there isn't a huge amount of change to talk about. I mentioned in my last update on the 21st which was exactly 1 month into the recovery and had bitcoin knocking on the door to $50k that it could be a good place for the recovery to end. After all, $50k is a huge psychological number and I had a feeling it wouldn't be easy for bitcoin to push above it.
Bitcoin Daily Chart
Looking at the chart you can see that bitcoin didn't peak on the 21st but did peak two days later on the 23rd. Before reversing bitcoin did manage to push slightly above $50k, hitting a high of $50,505 (Coinbase) but it could not stay there. Over the last three days, bitcoin has pulled back to very near the daily 200 SMA and daily 21 EMA which have converged. It is very possible that we could see a bounce from here just as bitcoin did during the last two pullbacks. You can also see that the RSI has pulled back to a mid-range level equal to where the other bounces occurred.
It's still too early to tell if this is where the pullback ends and bitcoin pushes back up near $50k or if there is more downside to go, we will just have to wait and see. If the price does end up heading even lower I am seeing support levels at about $44k and $42.5k. In my opinion, this is a big test for the bulls. Can they regain the momentum to push the price of bitcoin back up to $50k and beyond? I think how the price of bitcoin responds over the next few days will tell us a lot about this recovery. Has it been nothing more than just a bear market bounce or is it actually much more than that?
That's all I've got for now.