I hope you are all doing well today, which just happens to be Friday the 13th. I also hope you are preparing for a great weekend, the summer seems to be flying by so the number of warm-weather weekends is dwindling fast.
Bitcoin Daily Chart
Okay, now moving on to bitcoin. After pulling back to the 9 EMA yesterday, bitcoin has done just as I said I hoped it would in yesterday's update. Bitcoin made a strong recovery to push back above the daily 200 SMA (white line). The daily 200 SMA has given bitcoin some trouble in the past and I didn't want bitcoin lingering for too long underneath it. Looking at the chart you can also see that the 50 EMA should be crossing above the 200 EMA at any time, most likely later today or tomorrow but that is also dependant on bitcoins price action.
Bitcoin 4-hour Chart
Moving on to the 4-hour chart the one thing that concerns me is that bitcoin has stalled again just below $46.8k. Pushing back above the 200 SMA was a good first step but bitcoin also needs to push up into this resistance that currently sits right above it.
Bitcoin Daily Chart with Fib Levels
Here is another daily chart in which I have added the Fib retracement levels. You can see that not only is bitcoin struggling with a fairly strong resistance level (yellow circles), but it has also reached the 0.5 Fib level, bitcoin has retraced 50% of the way back to the all-time high.
If bitcoin can manage to break through this strong resistance level I would expect a move up to the 0.618 Fib level which sits just over $51k. That is what I am hoping for but first, we have to see if the bulls have enough momentum to push through this resistance.
The most likely scenarios I see playing out would be (#1) bitcoin breaks through the resistance level soon, like sometime today, then keeps moving higher. (#2) Bitcoin can not break through the resistance level and pulls back to the $44k to $45k level and consolidates for a while before making another attempt in a few days. (#3) Bitcoin can not break through the resistance level, the bulls lose all momentum, and bitcoin heads back down to the lows around $30k. I am hoping for #1, I would settle for #2, and I would hate to see #3!
All we can do is wait and watch to see how it plays out.