First, I would like to say that I hope wherever you are on this beautiful planet, that you are all having a great week! As I have said in my last few updates, I am not totally convinced that this push higher bitcoin has made over the last three weeks is the start of a new bull market that will lead to new all-time highs. I still feel that it most likely is just a bear market bounce. I have to say though that either way it has been really nice to see bitcoin showing so much strength.
Bitcoin Daily Chart
Looking at the daily chart you can see that since the last update bitcoin was able to push above the white daily 200 SMA. In the process, bitcoin did become quite extended above the daily 9 EMA and just recently has fallen back below the 200 SMA. So far it looks like just a healthy pullback which has brought the price back closer to the 9 EMA. What I would like to see next is for bitcoin to recover and push back above the 200 SMA fairly soon. If bitcoin is able to push back above the 200 SMA, there is a zone of resistance that I see starting at around $48k that bulls will have to deal with.
On the positive side, the Hash Ribbon indicator has just given a buy signal (blue dot). This indicator has been very accurate, this is the 11th time in bitcoins history where this indicator has given a BUY signal. There has only been 1 time where the indicator gave a BUY signal and bitcoin's price has dropped back below the daily low that preceded the BUY signal. That one signal failure was due to the COVID crash. Nothing is 100% accurate but I put a lot of weight in the fact that we did just get the BUY signal.
Overall, bitcoin's performance over the last few weeks has been very impressive. The longer time frames in my opinion look very bullish and so far buyers have been very eager to step in on any dips. Even with all of the bullishness lately, I still have my doubts. The first step for bitcoin will be to get back over the daily 200 SMA, then I would like to see bitcoin resume the push back up to $50k. Basically, I want the bulls to show that they are back in charge and have the strength to repel any attempt by the bears to drive bitcoin's price lower. Even with my doubts, I am much more bullish than I was last week and if bitcoin can push back above the 200 SMA with strength I might actually become a believer.
That's all I've got for now.