Okay, so first off I want to say that I hope you all had a great holiday weekend. If you were away and not following the crypto market you really didn't miss anything. Bitcoin has been pretty subdued lately and mostly just trading sideways. This is my first update for June and I can actually say that bitcoin does appear a bit more bullish the last day or two.
Bitcoin 4-hour Chart
Looking at the 4-hour chart above you can see that bitcoin has been in a small uptrend since May 29th and is approaching the upper trendline of the symmetrical triangle. Even though bitcoin has been in this small uptrend it is still hard for me to be too bullish other than in the very short term or very long term.
Looking back what really has me leaning bearish is the two-month distribution (topping) period, which I mistakenly thought was consolidation, along with the way the price of bitcoin has acted following the large correction it just went through. Previous corrections were all bought up pretty quickly. After this correction though it seems that buyers are a bit hesitant to just jump back in and as such bitcoin has been basically trading sideways for the last 2 weeks.
Looking at the chart you can also see that I have shown the three possible ways this triangle could resolve itself. Of the three I would consider #3 as the most likely and #1 as the least likely.
Bitcoin Daily Chart
All of that combined with the fact that bitcoin is now forming a symmetrical triangle has me believing that this latest uptrend will only lead to a lower high and ultimately a breakdown out of the triangle to much lower prices. For those who are not familiar with symmetrical triangles, they are continuation patterns, and because the prior price action was bearish I believe there is a higher probability that it will resolve in a bearish manner. Nothing is always 100% so there is a small chance that bitcoin could breakout higher but I don't believe that is too likely.
Looking at the daily chart above you can clearly see the symmetrical triangle along with the measured move targets, which are about $52k for a breakout higher and about $21k for a break down lower. If we do see bitcoin break down and hit the lower target that to me would signal the end of the bull market, as it is even now I am leaning 70/30 that the bull market has already ended. Because I didn't like the way bitcoin was acting I have been in capital preservation mode since about the middle of May when I went to about 90% USDC. I am still staking on the Raydium platform but other than that I don't hold any other major crypto positions.
In closing, I want to say that I would love nothing more than for bitcoin to prove me wrong and continue the bull market to new all-time highs.