It has been six days since my last update. The lack of updates isn't really because bitcoin hasn't been doing too much it is mainly due to me being in the middle of a move that has gotten pretty screwed up. I am currently in a temporary location until the condo we are moving into is ready. Part of the issue that I am dealing with is marginal internet service, most of the time it is hard to get a stable connection. Anyway, enough about my problems let's take a look at what bitcoin is doing.
Bitcoin Daily Chart
The last update I published was on the 19th and the price of bitcoin was sitting just under the upper trendline (7 candles back from today's candle). The following day bitcoin once again tried to push above the upper trendline but was rejected again leading to the huge drop on the 21st and 22nd. On the 22nd bitcoin hit a low of $28,800 (Coinbase) that low was immediately met with a massive amount of buying which led to a very nice bounce all the way back up to the upper trendline. As you can see once again the price was rejected as the bulls tried to push it above the upper trendline.
Currently, the price is sitting about halfway between the upper and lower trendlines but is trending downward as I write this. So far we have seen a failed breakout attempt and a failed breakdown. Both the upper and lower trendlines have now each been tested several times and it is only a matter of time until one of them fails for good. I am still leaning bearish so I believe it will be the lower trendline that will ultimately fail leading to much lower prices. You can also see on the chart that there was a death cross that occurred on the 23rd, death crosses are bearish and generally signal much lower prices ahead.
Bitcoin 4-hour Chart
Wyckoff Accumulation Schematic
I believe I have shown this before but thought I would again just in case anyone missed it the first time. The schematic above shows a Wyckoff accumulation pattern, the reason I am sharing it is that there are some analysts who believe that the sideways price pattern that bitcoin has been creating for over a month is actually an accumulation pattern. They believe that this sideways pattern bitcoin has created is the bottom and at some point, bitcoin will begin to push higher out of the pattern thus starting another bull market. Looking at the 4-hour bitcoin chart you can see that there are some similarities but I am not sure that I believe this is the bottom. I would be very happy if this was the bottom and after a period of accumulation bitcoin started moving higher again but before I can believe it I will have to see more bullish signs from bitcoin. If bitcoin keeps dropping and hits the lower trendline I want to see buyers once again step in and push the price back up. I also would need to see bitcoin eventually invalidate the descending triangle by breaking out of it and pushing higher.
As I have said before we are not in control of where the price goes so all we can do is patiently watch this play out. My plan, for now, is to continue my small weekly purchases of bitcoin for my long-term portfolio and when I believe we are close to a bottom I will start accumulating altcoins again in preparation for the next bull market.
That is all for today. Take care!