Updated: Sep 1, 2018
Okay, so was that it? Was the low set on Feb. 6th the bottom? I wish I could tell you with certainty yes or no. Unfortunately, as I have said before no one really knows for sure. Since BTC set the low of $6000 on Feb. 6th it has bounced to a high of just under $9075.
But what worries me is that BTC came down with such speed and momentum that I have to wonder if this recovery is nothing more than just a dead cat bounce, sorry to all the cats out there, I have nothing against cats (I actually have two), it's just a market expression. It is very possible that BTC could roll over here and head back down to retest the low. If BTC does retest the low, and the low holds then BTC starts moving higher again forming a double bottom, that in my opinion will be a very strong bottoming signal.
On the other hand, if BTC rolls over and the Feb. 6th low does not hold I would see that as a very bearish signal, telling us that the selling has not ended and we have not yet found the bottom. If BTC does manage to set a new low I would expect a drop to around $5500, I do not believe that a drop below $5000 is out of the question either.
I have started buying back into my positions of BTC, ETH, and LTC along with some other alt coins but I am only making small purchases until I am more confident we have actually hit bottom or are near a bottom. In the chart below you can also see my thoughts on BTC.
My thoughts on ETH are pretty much the same as with BTC. Since approximately Jan. 13th ETH has been locked in a 10:1 ratio with BTC. So, for now, I would expect if BTC rolls over and heads lower we will see the same from ETH, or if BTC starts moving higher again I would expect ETH to do the same. Currently, there seems to be a strong correlation between the price of BTC and the price of ETH but as we have seen in the past ETH can go on sudden strong runs so this correlation could end at any time. As I said in the BTC chart comments I am not yet convinced that the lows set on Feb. 5th (ETH) & 6th (BTC) are the bottom, as the chart shows I could see a double bottom as one possibility or ETH could head lower and set a lower low. Of course, another possibility is that the low on Feb. 5th really was bottom and we just keep moving higher.
I'm not sure how long this correction will last, I could see a period of consolidation (weeks or maybe a couple of months) before building momentum and starting another bull run. Who knows though maybe this is a rinse and repeat scenario, after all, it was about the middle to end of Feb. last year when ETH really started to take off. Maybe this is bottom and ETH is getting ready for another run higher. Either way, I am looking forward to being involved in the crypto markets in 2018!
Unlike BTC and ETH, LTC has already formed a double bottom, but that does not mean it cannot go lower, it is always possible that it could. However, between the double bottom formation and $100 being, in my opinion, a very strong support area I would be very surprised if LTC would break below $100 for very long. If by chance I am wrong the $100 level does not hold I would say that $80 would be the next stop. My plan is to rebuild my position in LTC, I have already started buying again, slowly building up my position however if LTC does drop below $100 very far I will start buying aggressively.
I have held and sold NEO several times, and I still hold a small position. I originally started buying NEO under $5.00, then sold most of it during the first push up over $50. I bought again when it retraced to under $20 and continued to buy as it increased in price but then sold my position as it turns out too early at around $120 only to see the price hit $200. I have started to slowly buy as the price has pulled back closer to $100, which is where it currently sits. I see $100 as a pretty strong support level but not impenetrable. If it does not hold the next support zone I see is around $75 to $80 and if that does not hold I could see NEO going down to around $50. As I said I am looking to buy more so if it drops substantially below $100 I will start buying aggressively.
After all of the crazy price increases of last year and subsequent corrections, I still remain very bullish on the crypto markets as a whole and really feel blessed to be part of this wild space! I also still believe there is a lot of money yet to be made in these markets. So fasten your seatbelts because, in my opinion, it is very possible last year was just a warmup for what lies ahead.
Until my next blog