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My Bitcoin Analysis for May 4th, 2021

I am first going to take look at the 4-hour chart, what we can see is that the recovery from the low set on April 25th has been rounding off as bitcoin has lost momentum. Then last night bitcoin dropped below a support level at around $56,500 and had a quick drop to about $54,700. There is a "point of control" high volume node at $54,866 which bitcoin bounced off of, but as of this morning, it still isn't clear whether or not the bounce will continue. If the bounce does continue the low set last night will be set as a higher low in the overall recovery from the 25th. If instead bitcoin rolls over and starts heading lower again we'll have to wait and see if bitcoin will bounce a second time off of the high volume node forming a double bottom pattern. If the support from the high volume node fails there should be some support at around $54k, other than that there isn't much for support until around the $50k level where there is another high volume node.

Bitcoin 4-hour Chart

Looking at the daily chart you can see that bitcoin has fallen below the point of control high volume node which now will act once again as resistance. The last bounce earlier today was off of the 55 EMA if that support fails then there isn't much support until around the $54k level, if that fails there is a large volume void that BTC will fall through. There really isn't much support until the $50k level where the volume congestion builds again and the daily 100 EMA is currently sitting. If the $50k level fails then BTC very well could revisit the low set on April 25th or even drop down to the weekly 21 EMA which sits around the $46k level.

Bitcoin Daily Chart

I personally don't expect bitcoin to make a new all-time high any time soon, I feel like bitcoin is in a consolidation phase which has already been going on for over a month. I believe this consolidation phase could last anywhere from a few more weeks to a month or more with bitcoin ranging anywhere from a little below $50k up to around $60k. I just get the feeling that we are in for a bit of a roller coaster ride for a while so strap in and enjoy the ride!

To me, the longer-term time frames still look good so I do not believe that bitcoin has peaked for this bull market cycle. In my opinion, the all-time high set on April 14th is just a local top and not a macrocycle top.



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