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Good Riddance 2018!

Hello, fellow crypto enthusiasts! Are you still out there? Of course, you are, you are not going to let a 50% dump in the price of cryptos in a matter of weeks scare you off! Having survived this bear market will only serve to make you stronger in the future. I have decided to look at this relentless bear market as an opportunity, rather than something to be feared.

So, 2018 is almost gone, thank god! It was a brutal year for cryptos and for other financial markets as well. Bitcoin is currently down about 77% from the 2018 high, and at the low set on December 15th Bitcoin was down over 81% from the 2018 high. Most other cryptos have not fared any better with some down 90 to 95% from their 2018 highs.

No one really knows what 2019 will bring for the crypto markets but I am hopeful that it will turn out to be a much better year than 2018. The last few weeks have been pretty rough with Bitcoin finally breaking through the 2018 low of $5755 (Bitfinex). Not only did it break the 2018 low Bitcoin also blew right through $5000 with relative ease and then eventually the $4000 level failed also.

So what caused this sudden collapse in price? I don't think we will ever know for sure, it could be as simple as the long standing support finally failing leading to capitulation by many bitcoin holders. The other possibility is that it could have been the result of massive Bitcoin selling to fund the Bitcoin Cash war. Craig Wright one of the major players in the SV(Satoshi’s Vision) group tweeted that if a war broke out between the two groups that a lot of Bitcoin would have to be sold in order to finance it. He also said that a $1000 Bitcoin price would not bother him. My feeling is that it wasn’t just a coincidence that basically the whole crypto market tanked on the 14th. I believe that the selling of Bitcoin by these whales to fund their war is a major reason for the huge drop over the last few weeks.

A brutal few weeks for Bitcoin and all cryptos

Okay, with that behind us where does Bitcoin go from here? I feel that because the old support zone ($5755 to about $6400) was so strong and held for so long, that Bitcoin at some point in the not too distant future will rise up and re-test that zone which will now act as resistance. My personal feeling is that this re-test will fail and the price of Bitcoin will once again fall into the $3000 to $4000 level. Also, the 100 and 200-day SMA are both moving down quickly, and Bitcoin will have to deal with them as well.

I just feel that with Bitcoin having broken the 2018 low which held for so long that this will extend the bear market for months, possibly through the end of next year. I believe that there needs to be a period of consolidation, possibly lasting several months before a new bull market can begin. Also we do not even know for sure if Bitcoin has bottomed yet. Obviously, at some point, Bitcoin will find an ultimate bottom but how much lower will that be? I think that it is possible that Bitcoin eventually could re-test the 2013 high of $1175.

Having said all of that I want to reiterate that I still remain very bullish on cryptocurrencies long-term, we just have to withstand this bear market to see the rewards of the next bull market. I wish that was not the case and who knows I could be totally wrong and believe me nothing would make me happier but being realistic I feel that we have to be ready for more pain before things get better. If we do indeed have many months to go before the next bull market, one positive aspect will be that it will give us plenty of time to accumulate our favorite cryptos or additional time to save up fiat to buy our favorite cryptos.

As I said in the beginning, I am looking at this bear market as an opportunity to accumulate crypto at what I believe will turn out to be dirt cheap prices. As I have said in other posts I believe this bear market could turn out to be a second chance for us all to ride another crypto wave to new all-time highs. That's not to say this beak market hasn't been painful, because it has. Although I did take profits late in 2017 and through the beginning of 2018, I still held onto a sizable portfolio. I am sure there are others who have held onto cryptos as well and it has definitely been painful to check the value of that portfolio through out 2018.

So, I am looking forward to 2018 being over with and somewhat anxious about what 2019 will bring. Although I am hopeful I still want to remain open to the possibility that 2019 could also turn out to be a rough year. But, no matter how 2019 turns out I will still believe in the long-term prospects for cryptos, which I see as very bright.

Until the next article, Take care! See you next Year!



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