Updated: Sep 1, 2018
So I decided to examine a previous boom & correction cycle Bitcoin has gone through to get an insight into how the price reacted over time and also to compare that cycle to the current boom and correction cycle.
I was going to call the cycle’s boom & bust cycles but I don't like the word bust, my definition of bust is when something crashes and never regains its previous stature. That is like the word bubble, to me when something is in a bubble and it bursts, that's it, it never returns. Just like a real bubble when you pop it, it's gone. Right or wrong that is just how I look at it, I prefer to just say something has run up too far and is way overvalued, not in a bubble.
Okay, sorry I got a little sidetracked, on with the examination. I have to say I found some interesting similarities between the two corrections. Before I start I want to add that the line chart doesn't really line up too good at times with the price scale due to very quick spikes lower that occurred on 12/18 and 2/25 which the line chart does not pick up, I am using the cursor to determine the prices for each day (high or low). Also, I am using the Bitfinex price chart.
Looking at the chart we can see that Bitcoin peaked at $1175 on 12/4/2013, it then suffered a 68% correction which it hit the low of on 12/18 ($381.50). Following that low, there was a nice bounce which peaked on 1/6/2014, but Bitcoin could not hold those gains and the price once again dropped down to $400 on 2/25, thus re-testing the low set on 12/18. Bitcoin bounced again but this time it was short lived and the price dropped setting a new low of $340 on 4/11. We can see that there was another bounce but then over the next several months the price slowly kept dropping until it hit a low of $166 on 1/14/2015. There was then a period of 7 months where the price was basically sideways and on 8/18/2015 the price hit $162, re-testing the low set on 1/14. Not too long after that low the price of Bitcoin began to increase again and has not hit that low since. So from peak to the first low set on 1/14/2015 was a little over 13 months. The accumulation phase that followed I would estimate lasted over 10 months culminating with a breakout above $300 on 10/28/2015.
Examining the current boom & correction we can see that Bitcoin hit an all-time high of $19,891 on 12/17/2017 followed by a correction down to $6000 (70% drop) which it hit on 2/6/2018. Following that low, Bitcoin had a nice bounce but could not hold the gains and again dropped to where we are today, it actually hit a low of $6533 yesterday (3/30/2018).
What I find interesting but may be totally meaningless is that during the 2014 correction the time interval between the 12/18 low and the re-test on 2/25 was a little over 2 months. Now look at the current correction, we had the low set on 2/6 and we are now approaching 2 months later and may soon be witnessing the re-test of that low. Also, I find it interesting how close the percentage drops were 68% in 2013 compared to 70% this time. Again, I find these things interesting but hey I am easily amused.
So where does Bitcoin go from here? I wish I knew, if I did I could make a fortune. It will be very interesting though to see if Bitcoin follows the 2013/2014 correction further. So just for fun let’s say it does, both in time and the correction percentage. That would mean we would bottom sometime towards the end of this year or beginning of 2019. Then enter an accumulation phase which would last several months before another bull market begins.
Of course, another scenario could be that we see a similar percentage drop but in a shortened time frame, possibly hitting bottom in a matter of a couple of months from now say like May or June. We then enter the accumulation phase for several months then enter another bull market later this year or early in 2019.
These charts are published on TradingView, here is the link for those who want to view them on TradingView.
As I said I really have no idea where the price of Bitcoin will bottom, it's possible the low of $6000 (Bitfinex price) set on 2/6 was it and although we may re-test that low Bitcoin will only move higher from here. On the other hand, I still get the feeling Bitcoin has a way to go before it does put in a bottom.
I will be watching for a period of low volatility and sideways price movement similar to what we saw in 2015. I think it will be a period where cryptocurrencies are very boring, the hype around them will be long gone, all those who jumped in just to make a quick buck will have moved on. I believe this will be the time to start building positions back up for the next bull market because mark my words it is coming, it may take many months but I truly believe cryptocurrencies are here to stay and that this is just another boom & correction cycle like we have seen in the past.
So, for now, I am being patient, waiting for the signals that will tell me it is once again time to start buying. I already have my shopping list ready and believe me I will be very excited to pick up some real bargains. Often times in life you do not get second chances but I believe this will be a second chance for all those who missed the last bull market. This will be a second chance to get in before the next run higher but you have to have the conviction to buy when things look bleak and boring because this is a time the "smart money" is just waiting for to load up.
Until the next blog post.
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