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Bitcoin Update for May 31st, 2021

Happy Memorial day! I hope you are all having a great time and spending some quality time with your family. As far as bitcoin goes there isn't too much change, mostly just sideways price action.

Bitcoin 4-hour Chart

Looking at the 4-hour chart you can see that bitcoin has been just moving sideways and currently sits just below the 50 EMA. Bitcoin has a lot of work ahead of it to get back above $40k, even if BTC pushes above the 50 EMA it will then have to push above the $38k resistance level, which won't be easy.

Bitcoin Daily Chart

On a more depressing note, looking at the daily chart we can see that bitcoin is in the process of forming a symmetrical triangle. Symmetrical triangles are typically continuation patterns and since the preceding price action was bearish I say the probability of it breaking down bearishly is more likely than seeing BTC breakout higher. If BTC does break down out of the triangle the measured move would be down to about the $22k to $23k level. This would vary though depending on where on the triangle it breaks down from.

Bitcoin Long-term Chart

If the triangle does play out bearishly and the measured move is met it would line up with the chart above, I'm not sure that by itself would signal the end of this bull market. I would have to see how bitcoin responds afterwards to make that decision.

Bitcoin 2013 Bull Market Chart

I have posted the chart above before but think it is worth re-posting as I still think that this bull market could end up looking similar. My thoughts right now are that we could see a couple of possibilities play out. The first scenario I could see playing out is bitcoin consolidating in a range of about $10k ($30k - $40k or $35k - $45k) for a few months before moving higher again. The second scenario would be for the symmetrical triangle to play out bearishly and for bitcoin to consolidate in the $20k to $30k range for a few months then move higher again. I would love nothing better than for bitcoin to just start moving higher from here back up to a new all-time high but I believe that scenario is a long shot.

That's all I have, for now, I wish I had a more bullish outlook but I just don't see anything so far that points to that outcome.

Take care!


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