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Bitcoin Update for July 4th, 2021

I want to wish everyone in the U.S. a happy 4th of July! I hope you are all having a great holiday weekend. And for everyone else, I hope where ever you are you're also having a great weekend.

It's been a while since my last update, although there really hasn't been too much new to report. Another reason why I haven't posted more is that I am still at a temporary location stuck halfway through moving. The condo we are moving into was supposed to be ready two weeks ago but now looks like it should be ready next weekend. Being that this is Montana, cell and internet service in certain locations is limited and I am currently running off of a hot spot that is not ideal but is better than nothing.

Bitcoin Daily Chart

Anyway, enough about my issues. Moving on to Bitcoin, as I said there really hasn't been much to analyze. Basically, bitcoin has been stuck in a sideways trading range from $30k to around $40k since the middle of May. Over the past two weeks since dipping below $30k bitcoin has been in a slight uptrend and looks to be forming a rising wedge pattern. A Rising Wedge is a bearish pattern that begins wide at the bottom and contracts as prices move higher and the trading range narrows. Rising wedge patterns have a bearish bias so I would expect at some point bitcoin will break down lower out of the pattern.

Bitcoin 2017 to 2019 Bull - Bear Market Chart

Although it has only been about one and a half months that bitcoin has been stuck in the sideways trading range. The $30k level has proven to be a pretty strong support level and is really starting to remind me of the $6k level during the 2018 bear market. The $6k level provided strong support until it finally broke in early November of 2018 allowing bitcoin to finally bottom out.

It will be very interesting to see how much longer the $30k level can support the price of bitcoin. Could the $30k level be the bottom for this bear market? Are we currently even in a bear market? I would argue that yes we are in a bear market, at the low set on June 22nd, the price of bitcoin was down over 55% from the peak and is currently still down about 45%. This has also been in my opinion a prolonged downturn, it has been almost two months now since the dramatic drop in price that we saw in the middle of May. My opinion is that we are not at the bottom of this bear market yet, my expectation is that at some point the $30k level will fail just as the $6k level did in 2018. If the $30k level does eventually fail, I would expect the price of bitcoin to fall at least down to test the 2017 peak at around $20k and at worst into the mid to lower teens.

Bitcoin Long-term 2-week Chart

Looking at the long-term chart above you can see how the price of bitcoin has gravitated towards the long-term trendline. Anytime the price has strayed too far away from it, there has been a correction to bring the price back near it. The two most likely paths I see back would either be a quick drop as I mentioned down near the $20k level, or we could possibly see this sideways ranging price action last for quite a while. That would be similar to the 2018 bear market where the price of bitcoin bounced off of the $6k level quite a few times over a period of about 8 to 9 months.

Obviously, I have no way of knowing where the price of bitcoin will go in the future. All of this is just my opinion and I could be totally wrong. As I have said many times in the past I remain very bullish in the long-term and expect the price of bitcoin to be much higher 5 or 10 years from now. It is the short to medium-term path that is uncertain at this time. What I would prefer to see is for the price to continue to chop around in the range it has been for a period of a few more weeks or maybe a couple of months, then to see a new bull market begin leading to many more new all-time highs.

Regardless of what any of us want all we can do is sit back and watch it play out, and try to position ourselves the best we can to not only protect our capital but to be in a position to capitalize on the next bull market.

That is all I have for now. Take care!


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