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Bitcoin Update for August 21st, 2021

Happy Saturday everybody! I hope you are all enjoying the weekend. I have to say that bitcoin continues to impress me, although I am still not totally convinced that this recovery that started exactly one month ago will lead to new all-time highs. Obviously, the longer bitcoin keeps this up the more bullish I become but I also witnessed some very impressive bounces during the 2018 bear market so I am being very cautious not to get caught in a bull trap.

Bitcoin Daily Chart #1

I thought this was pretty interesting, today's daily candle looks like an inverse clone of the reversal candle from the 18th. Of course, there are still a little over 5 hours until it closes so it is very possible that it will close as a completely different-looking candle. I also find it interesting that exactly 1 month after this recovery started bitcoin is knocking on the door to $50k, which is a huge phycological number and a very possible level at which this recovery could end. That's not what I want to see happen though, during this recovery I have been slowly re-building several positions so I would love as much as anyone to see this bullish run continue.

Bitcoin Daily Chart #2

Looking at this second daily chart you can see that bitcoin is currently right up against a level of resistance. You can also see that there are some higher-level volume nodes that start at around $48.5K and extend up to about $51K, which bitcoin is currently right in the middle of. If bitcoin can push through these, there is a pocket of lower resistance that it should have a much easier time pushing through. But, the easy-going won't last for long as there is another grouping of high volume nodes starting at around $53.5k and running all the way up to $59k.

Bitcoin Weekly Chart

Switching to the weekly chart you can see just how impressive this recovery has been. If bitcoin can avoid a major decline between now and tomorrow night it will have closed 5 strong green candles in a row. Bitcoin sits above all of the moving averages and the 9 EMA has finally pushed back above the 21 EMA, so all of the moving averages are in their proper order again. All in all the weekly chart to me looks very bullish but I believe it is still possible that this recovery could still only result in a macro lower high.

During this bitcoin recovery, there have also been incredible recoveries by some of the altcoins, and a few have even set new all-time highs. Three that I am aware of are Cardano (ADA), which ran from $1.04 up to a new all-time high of $2.29. Helium (HNT) ran from $9.53 to a new all-time high of $25.88, and probably the most impressive, Solana (SOL) which ran from $22.80 up to a new all-time high of $81.92.

In closing, I just want to say that this past year has been a pretty wild one. Now, moving forward here are the two big questions that I have. Was the new all-time high set by bitcoin on April 12th the peak of the bull market for this cycle? Or, Will this market cycle resemble the 2013 bull market with two major peaks in less than a year? The really strange thing is that in 2013 the first peak occurred on April 10th with the final bull market peak on November 30th. How strange would that be if this cycle we get the first peak as we did on April 12th and then a final bull market peak later this year.

In my opinion, the fact that the new all-time high set by bitcoin (April 12th) and the first peak of the 2013 bull market (April 10th) being only two calendar days apart is already pretty wild. We'll just have to wait and see how this all plays out, can bitcoin push above $50k and keep this push higher going or will this recovery fizzle out and send bitcoin back down to the lows?

Take care!


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