*If you click on the chart a new tab will open with my TradingView chart, you can get a much better look at it there.
Hello, fellow crypto enthusiasts! This is probably some pretty crazy analysis but during this bear market that Bitcoin and most cryptocurrencies, in general, have gone through. I have been comparing this current market cycle to the 2013 - 2015 boom and correction cycle. My reason for doing this is to try to find similarities between the two cycles which may shed some light on how long this current cycle may last, and possibly when we may see another bull market begin.
I should first say that when I speak of the start of a new bull market, I am not saying that at that point Bitcoin is going to skyrocket to new all-time highs within a matter of weeks or even months, although I would love that. My definition of a new bull market is a new uptrend where the price of Bitcoin is making higher highs and higher lows not only on a daily but more importantly on a weekly and monthly time frame.
I should also say that I am making a lot of assumptions in coming up with this analysis but what the hell, what fun would it be if we didn't go out on a limb now and then. I want to also say that for this analysis I am using the Bitfinex price chart.
Okay, getting to the point of this new chart, looking at the 2013 - 2015 cycle we can see that from the peak on Dec. 4th, 2013 it took 406 days to reach the low on Jan. 14th, 2015. We can also see that it took approximately 696 days from the peak to what I would call the start of a new bull market. I am saying that the bull market started around the end of Oct. 2015 when the price of Bitcoin broke out from the highs of the consolidation phase.
So, looking at the current cycle we can see that it has taken 189 days from the peak on Dec. 17th, 2017 to reach the low on June 24th, 2018. This is where I make a big assumption, I am assuming that the low on June 24th will be the ultimate low for this cycle (fingers crossed!). So, moving forward comparing the timing of the 2013 – 2015 peak to low to the current peak to low, the current cycle has completed this in about half the time, 189 days compared to 406 days. Technically a little less than half but for this analysis I am rounding it to half.
So here, again I am going to make a big assumption, I am going to assume that this whole current market cycle will be accelerated by 50%. I know crazy right! But I am going to do it anyway, although sometimes I think I jinx myself by trying to make predictions. Great I have probably doomed the whole crypto market! Yeah right, like anything I do has that kind of power.
Sorry, getting back to my analysis. So, if I assume everything is accelerated by 50% then the time from the peak of this current cycle until the start of the next bull market should be about 348 days, which would put it somewhere around December 1st, 2018. I hate being too specific, so I will just say around that date. We can also see from the chart that it took about 483 days from the start of the new bull market in 2015 for Bitcoin to set a new all-time high on Feb. 23rd, 2017. So, if we extrapolate that to the current cycle then once the new bull market begins we should see a new all-time high in around 240 days later, which would put it around the end of July 2019.
Going even further out on a limb, we can see from the chart that it took about 780 days from the start of the 2015 bull market until the peak of this current cycle. So, that would then put the peak of the new bull market at around 390 days or around December 26th, 2019, now that would be a great Christmas present!
I really appreciate you taking the time to check out my analysis, and I hope you found it interesting even if it is crazy!
Until the next article, Take care!
Questions or comments? Email me at firstname.lastname@example.org