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Bitcoin - Is the Bull Market Over?

Updated: Jun 4, 2021

Sorry about all of the negative sentiment lately but I am just expressing what I am seeing in the charts. I suppose I could be just looking for bearishness in the charts but honestly, I want this bull market to resume and to see new all-time highs for bitcoin as well as many other altcoins.

Okay, well sorry in advance but here I go again with more possible bearish data to report.

Bitcoin 2013 Bull Market Weekly Chart

So, first off I want to start by looking once again at the weekly chart of the 2013 bull market. This time though I have removed the moving averages and added a new indicator, the Bull Market Support Band (BMSB). I have used it to compare past bull markets and to see how the price interacted with it.

What I have found is that during bull markets the price of bitcoin has generally stayed above the BMSB until after the bull market peak. There is only one exception and that was during the 2013 bull market when there was one weekly candle close below but the price quickly recovered back up into the band and eventually back above until after the final peak.

Bitcoin 2017 Bull Market Weekly Chart

Now, looking at the 2017 bull market you can see that there were dips below the band but there was no weekly candle closes below it until after the peak.

Bitcoin 2021 Bull Market Weekly Chart

Looking at the 2021 bull market you can see that since the sell-off in late August the price of bitcoin has remained well above the BMSB until the sell-off that started on the 12th of May. I wouldn't feel as bearish if the price had bounced right back up into or above the band. But as you can see bitcoin has now had two weekly candle closes below and is working on a third. Also, the BMSB will now act as a pretty strong resistance when bitcoin comes in contact with it again.

Bitcoin Long-term Monthly Chart

Okay, one last chart for today, and that is the long-term monthly chart showing bitcoins price from 2012 forward. The green boxes show the bull markets although they are just approximations. The pink arrows show the first monthly candle close below the 7 EMA (red line), since the beginning of each bull market. In a way, this chart shows the same thing as the previous charts with the bull market support band. You can see that there was never a monthly candle close during the bull market, only after the bull market peak. You can also see that the monthly candle for May did in fact close below the 7 EMA, and if we go by past history that would mean that the 2021 bull market peak has already occurred.

I realize I have said this in the past but I will say it again, I am not ready for this bull market to be over so I am really hoping that I am wrong and all of this data is meaningless. All we can do is be patient and see how bitcoin reacts moving forward. Maybe in the next update, I will have something more positive to report.

Take Care!


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